On Thursday, the nonpartisan group Cook Political Report (CPR) changed the Michigan Senate race from “solid” to “toss up” due to the ongoing impact of President Biden’s troubles on Democratic candidates in other elections.
“If there was one race that was looking like a stronger opportunity for Republicans even before the CNN debate and looks even more in play now, it is Michigan,” said Jessica Taylor, CPR’s Senate and governors editor, in an analysis.
The Democratic nominee after the primary on August 6th is expected to be Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, who has maintained a lead, according to CPR. Nonetheless, the margin of victory is less than in other state elections labeled as “Lean Democrat” by CPR.
Although this is Slotkin’s first time running for office on a statewide level, Taylor praised her as a formidable Democrat and noted that she successfully turned a blue congressional seat in 2018.
Despite receiving Trump’s support, former Michigan Republican Rep. Mike Rogers has “never run in the Trump era of the GOP” since leaving office in 2014, according to CPR.
The Wolverine State’s presidential election is becoming more competitive, and a decline in Democratic base turnout may affect the Senate race in a unique way, according to CPR.
The only state where Democrat Slotkin is trailing Biden is Michigan, according to CPR, which cited RealClearPolitics averages. This is probably due to the fact that not everyone in Michigan is familiar with her.
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“According to Democrats, Slotkin is still leading Biden in polls, but it’s undeniably close,” Taylor noted in the research. “Therefore, we are changing the lean to a toss-up in the Michigan Senate race.”
Slotkin declared her candidacy for the Senate in early 2023, following the retirement of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan), who had the Michigan seat.
After Biden’s debate, there isn’t much information that can “throw the party fully into panic or completely calm fears,” as pointed out by CPR.
However, the nonpartisan group said that “it wouldn’t be enough to keep their majority intact”—i.e., even if every vulnerable Senate Democrat were to win reelection.
Another CPR study this week also suggests that Trump is making gains in important swing states, and the new Michigan reading follows suit.
In November, Biden’s prospects were already low due to his refusal to step away. The 2nd Congressional District, which includes Nebraska, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, was downgraded from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic” by the organization.
Additionally, the organization upgraded Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up.”